Macro Comment: Deposit taxes already in place in Italy and Spain

Macro Comment

Deposit tax is ALREADY in place in Italy & Spain. Rumor of some junk websites in Italy states that there will deposit tax of 15-20% coming... We don't believe the source to be credible but do note this:

Both Italy and Spain have deposit taxes in place:

Italy have 0.015% tax on AUM in place since December 2011 and only a few week ago the Spanish government got approval from court to impose a 0.2-0.3 pc tax as below link explains:

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/news-brief/3569661-spanish-banking-levy-will-collect-3bn

So Cyprus is not a one-off but an extension of practices already in place and let me warn again: The fact these taxes are low now only means it's more "rewarding to increase the as governments maximize tax revenue - (Think VAT - starts at 1-2% and ends at 25% (Denmark))

Furthermore the banks still leads lower and have broken the last support in place my blog warned about yesterday:

http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/banks-focus-s-news-990725587

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
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Macro Digest: Banks are back in focus... and that's bad news

http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/banks-focus-s-news-990725587

 

To get a confirmation of a trend you need the banks to lead, dictates a good old rule of thumb in the stock market.  Unfortunately, the banks recently fell to the downside.

The European Bank Index yesterday suffered a big loss and we are now at major support, which needs to hold:

Source: Saxo Trader

And the Credit Index on banks is also rising:

There is ample reason to believe that deposits will flow from Italian, Spanish and Portugese banks as the whole concept of a bail-in of all asset classes will leave investors no option but to go for more safe havens. That said, I think it will matter little as we will soon see a full European version that mirrors the Swedish Bank model, which was financed by levies on assets in all of Europe (or Euro zone).

The main themes of the Swedish Bank model were (Wikipedia and an Economist piece from 2009 are the sources for the below):

During 1991 and 1992, a housing bubble in Sweden deflated, resulting in a severe credit crunch and widespread bank insolvency. The causes were similar to those of the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2007–2008. In response, the government took the following actions:

·         It announced the state would guarantee all bank deposits and creditors of the nation's 114 banks;

·         Sweden's government assumed bad bank debts, but banks had to write down losses and issue an ownership interest (common stock) to the government. Shareholders at the remaining large banks were diluted by private recapitalisations (meaning that they sold equity to new investors). Bondholders at all banks were protected;

·         Nordbanken and Götabanken were granted financial support and nationalised at a cost of 64 billion kronor. Their bad debts were transferred to the asset-management companies Securum and Retriva, which sold off the assets, mainly real estate, that the banks held as collateral for these debts;

·         When distressed assets were later sold, the proceeds flowed to the state and the government was able to recoup more money later by selling its shares in the nationalised banks in public offerings.

·         Sweden formed the Bank Support Authority to supervise institutions that needed recapitalisation.

This bailout initially cost about 4 percent of Sweden's GDP, but was later lowered to between 0 and 2 percent of GDP depending on various assumptions due to the value of stock later sold when the nationalised banks were privatised.

This report is an excellent insight into the banking crisis: http://www.sns.se/sites/default/files/securum_eng.pdf

Again, today, the Club Med banks are under pressure, as seen by my Bloomberg screen:

Finally, we need to stop at government bond spreads as an indication to "contagion or not". The government bond market is not a free market. There is probably not even a market more manipulated by threats, liquidity and sheer political intervention; hence no value!

No; the new risk indicator is the banks and their relative performance to core banks and overall banks in the US. Here, the conclusion is clear: Beware that risk is increasing and has been rising even before Cyprus broke down or in, whichever way you want to put it.

PS: My friend Flavian Eigensatz added this to the above:

here previous turning points in the Bank Index. It seems, we got notified of a new one now.

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
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Stress Indicators is showing ....stress

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

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Steen's Chronicle: Cyprus: The deal that is not a deal but an understanding.......

Cyprus: The deal that is not a deal but an understanding.......

Non-Independent Investment Research

Let's talk about what we do know, which is very different from what the Troika and Cypriot government wants us to believe:

·         Cyprus will be in a three-year program – The Troika will provide EUR 10 billion which can not be used for recapitalising the two biggest banks.

·         Cyprus needs to bring its government debt down to 100 percent of GDP by 2020.

·         The banking sector need to be at European average level by 2018.

·         Laiki bank will be split in a good and a bad bank. The "good" bank will be folded into Bank of Cyprus including the ELA funding (approximately nine billion EUR). This should raise roughly four billion EUR according to EU Group.

·         Bank of Cyprus will need to be capitalised to have a core capital ratio of nine percent which means a serious amount of bail-ins from its equity, bond and depositors with in excess of  EUR 100,000 in their accounts. Estimates run from a conservative 20 percent to a draconian 50 depending on the model used and the future impairment of the loan book.

·         Time-line: By Mid-April (Note: not this week but by Mid-April) a memorandum of understanding needs to be signed by the Troika and the Cypriot government. Then this MoU needs to ratified by all members of the Eurozone including Germany by late April/early May for the first installment to be paid out by May.

This is the facts as I see them. From now until mid-April is a very long time, especially for a country which just introduced three "firsts" in EU history:

1.    Capital control. One euro in Cyprus is not the same as one euro in Berlin or Paris any more. You cannot move your money off the island.

2.    Bail-in of senior bondholders – In Greece it was only junior bondholderss

3.    Bail-in of depositors with more than EUR 100,000 in their accounts.

Leaving aside the fact that "capital controls" are only supposed to be for EMERGENCY circumstances, it is, like most solutions from the EU, a direct violation of the bloc's own treaties which enshrine the free movement of capital.

In Europe, it's been over a generation since anybody who was voted into office on a mandate for change actually came tru on their promise. Yes, the Lady with the handbag, Margaret Thatcher in 1979, but it was also in 1979 that the UK abolished its last capital controls. Have we gone full circle back to the 1970s? If so, let's hope that somewhere in Europe there's a new Baroness Thatcher waiting in the wings who is willing and able to see beyond the next ECOFIN or EU Council Meeting. With the current rate of policy backsliding and regression the EU is destined only for one thing: decade after decade of lost opportunities and a social fabric that will be hard to sustain in the face of rising unemployment, capital controls and a general attitude that more macro is needed and not less.

The German election can't come soon enough. We need to break this negative cycle which is spiraling out of control while politicians stands idly by. This weekend's 'deal' has no winners  - only losers. And it has left European decision-making bleeding and without hope of recovery as the EU commission and IMF exchanged harsh words all in the name of a power game, never for the sake of future Europeans.

Postscript: Following the publication of this article, the Eurogroup confirmed its intension on using the above template for future bail-outs:  (This is MUST READ material)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/eurogroup-cyprus-dijsselbloem-idUKL5N0CH2TJ20130325

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

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18/01/2008, Trichet: for a small open economy such as Cyprus, the euro adoption provides protection against international financial turmoil

 

From: Pierre Magnussen (PM)
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2013 06:55 PM
To: Steen Jakobsen (SJN)
Subject: 18/01/2008, Trichet: for a small open economy such as Cyprus, the euro adoption provides protection against international financial turmoil
 

Du vil elske det her. Pointed out on the Reuters dealing chat.

 

18/01/2008, Trichet: The entry of Cyprus into the euro area implies that the benefits of the Single Market will be further enhanced by the single currency. The euro offers a credible framework for price stability in an environment characterised by the absence of exchange rate uncertainty within the euro area. Cyprus will benefit from the stability-oriented policy of the ECB, which will help anchor inflation expectations. Furthermore, for a small open economy such as Cyprus, the euro adoption provides protection against international financial turmoil, which often has a disproportionate effect on smaller economies.

 

http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2008/html/sp080118.en.html

 

 

___________________________________
Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Pierre Magnussen  |  FX Trader
Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
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Steen's Chronicle: A Full blown poltical crisis - Macro digest on Cyprus, UK Budget and the FOMC

Macro Update: Cyprus, UK budget and the FOMC

Non-Independent Investment Research

Not a boring week for sure! Let's dig into it. First, my thoughts:

Cyprus  

A few facts in a news stream that is based on feeling, emotions and sometimes pure rubbish comments:

1. Any help from Russia can't be in the shape of a loan - a loan will make debt to GDP too high for the IMF and Germany. So if Russia is not handing over money free of charge as a gift, it is not part of any "deal".
2. The amount of natural gas constantly being brought forward is not quantified enough to be paid for. See this link.
   
3. As of last Friday, the ECB deemed some Cypriot banks insolvent as they wanted to close the Emergency Liquid Assistance (ELA) to protect the integrity of the banking system. The ELA is the ECB's last recourse for Euro zone banks that find themselves unable to raise funding in the open market through bond issuance. (Clickhere to read Deutsche Bank's explanation of why this is.)  The ECB will support the ELA through to the open on Tuesday.
4. The longer the bank holiday, the more likely Cypriot banks will see a bank run - so the time dimension works both ways, needing time to find a solution but also increasing the ultimate odds of people wanting to take their money out when the banks finally open. I personally do not believe any solution to Cyprus will create enough credibility to stop this. This has been a mess since Saturday morning and more so now with Russia involved.
5. The German election almost per definition means Angela Merkel can't back down as she has done in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. She was hailed over the weekend for making Cyprus pay part of the price for the bailout. In an election year (September 22, 2013), she can't come back and ask for "more money".

Conclusion

Cyprus needs to find more than EUR 5 billion of capital or the ELA is closed from Tuesday. Ignoring the EU Group and running to Moscow hardly sets perfect conditions for getting concessions. To me, this is becoming a Lehman moment both in terms of political significance but also to constitute the top of market. It's time to wear a hard helmet as it looks more and more like Cyprus is small enough to be made an example of. The change from economic to political crisis is now for everyone to see.

UK Budget

I rarely say this, but I was impressed by Chancellor George Osborne's delivery of the budget. A budget slow on progress and high on desperation, but he sold it well. The bottom line was, however, as expected.

Bank of England remit will be changed, keeping the 2% target, which has not been reached in six years now, and adding extra thresholds. What an imagination! Copying everything the US Federal Reserve has done so "succesfully". To me, this is confirmation of "monetary activism" as Osborne himself called it - or in my words: currency manipulations. GBP is a sell on this.  Budget tax cuts for business to follow loss of AAA credit rating

FOMC

Very small changes to status. Economic outlook upgraded to "moderate economic growth" from "economic activity paused".

At the press conference, Helicopter Ben acknowledged that the success of QE was uncertain and an overall threat to financial stability through a reach for yield. Of course, Bernanke calls it "manageable" in the context, but then again he famously did not see any sign of froth in the US housing market in 2005. (Promise me you see this media clip from Bernanke!)

Some hawks could interpret the minute changes to this text as indicating the FOMC is debating more actively to, if not stop, QE then at least reduce it:  "... In determining the size, pace, and composition of its assets purchases, the Committee will, as always, continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases, as well as as the extent of progress towards its economic objectives."

The latter part of this sentence is the interesting part and leads to some quarters seeing a reduction in size and scope - and most importantly, the belief in QE. It has to be said, you really have to look for it to find it.

Strategy

Two of the chart people I trust the most, Andrew Baptiste of TAG618 and our own John Hardy, are both looking for exhaustion on this move. John has written an excellent historic piece, titled How do massive stock market rallies end, which is a must read. Drew, who famously forecast the 666-00 S&P low in 2008 when he was at Morgan Stanley, is now running a top of market chart company of his own. Having been long, he is now calling for an end to this cycle. This link gives you an appetiser from Drew, who is not only an outstanding chartist, but also a perfect gentleman.

My point?

Market perception and market reality have been separated for a long time; for most of 2012 and certainly in 2013. In economic terms, only three month into the year the outlook is grim if not outright terrible in terms of growth and employment. This combined with an almost outrageous believe in the no alternative to stocks, the nonsense of the great rotation (it can't happen - one sells, then one buys right!), and the lower of forward earnings guidance indicate that my two friends, Drew and John, could be timing their end of rally/bearish calls well.

I remain with my All-weather portfolio for 70 percent of my capital, but in the Alpha Allocation I bought some May 2013 S&P Puts 1400 for 4.20 - if for nothing else than to protect the good start to 2013. 

This market may just about have proved wrong the famous John Maynard Keynes quote: '"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." This week could be the ultimate test.

Safe travels,

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

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UK Chancellor changes REMIT to US style threshold

2% inflation target repeated but..introducing Threshold – like the FED…..

 

UK FINANCE MINISTER OSBORNE - INFLATION TARGET WILL REMAIN AT 2 PCT AS MEASURED BY CPI - but letter timing to change

DJ UK OSBORNE: MPC MAY WISH TO ISSUE FORWARD GUIDANCE

DJ UK Osborne: MPC May Set "Intermediate Thresholds" As Fed Did

DJ UK OSBORNE: MPC MAY SET "INTERMEDIATE THRESHOLDS" AS FED DID - i.e. numerical targets

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

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UPDATE on Cyprus developments

 

Dear all,

 

Kindly find below an update with regards to the developments in Cyprus.

 

 

Latest Developments

 

Cyprus-Russia

-         According to Reuters, Cyprus has asked for a new 5 billion euros loan from Russia, along with the alteration of the terms of the existing one, expiring in 2016 (a five-year extension of the existing 2.5 billion euros loan as well as the decrease of the interest rate, currently at 4.5%).

-         Cyprus is turning to Russia, hoping that -despite the 'hit' between the two countries' relations following Anastasiades' decision to team-up with Eurogroup for the deposits' levy- the climate of trust will be restored.

-         The Cypriot government is hoping that by offering Cypriot banks, participation in the exploitation of hydrocarbons and port facilitations and continuation of the banking services, to Russia, it will manage to secure the necessary funds to safeguard the sustainability of the Cypriot debt, which constitutes a requirement of the Memorandum.

-         The Cypriot Finance Minister Michalis Sarris, who is in Russia and rejected yesterday reports of his resignation, has reportedly stated earlier today that the negotiations with Russia are in progress, that a good start was made and that no agreement has been reached yet. A Press Conference that was scheduled for 12 noon today by the Cypriot Finance Minister has been cancelled.

-         Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades had a 30-minute talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday late evening. As announced, the two leaders held a fruitful discussion regarding the two countries' economic relations. It is noted that according to press reports, Mr. Anastasiades had attempted many time to talk with the Russian President.

 

Plan B

-         Cypriot Minister of Internal Affairs, Socrates Hasikos, speaking at Greek TV earlier this morning, said that Troika is not accepting the 'Plan B' presented by Cyprus, which entails providing State's reserves, funds from loans from insurance funds or insurance companies, other banks, etc.

-         The Government's Spokesperson, Christos Stylianidis, reportedly said earlier today that a team of experts from each political party will participate in a meeting at the Central Bank of Cyprus in order to discuss a 'plan B'.

-         Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades is meeting with Troika's representatives today.

 

 

Cypriot banks

 

-         No decisions have been made yet with regards to the three Cypriot banks in Greece.

-         According to sources, all three systemic banks (NBG, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank) have reportedly submitted offers to the HFSF for all Cypriot banks, whereas TT is expected to act as a "back-up". It is noted that according to sources, Alpha Bank had initially expressed interest only for Bank of Cyprus.

-         The Greek government and the regulatory authorities in Greece are reportedly sending the message that Greece has a range of options available, in order to safeguard the domestic banking system's stability.

-         As reported, it is possible that the Cypriot banks will be closed until Friday – instead of Thursday as initially said.

-         Cypriot Minister of Internal Affairs, Socrates Hasikos, speaking at Greek TV earlier this morning, estimated that the most likely scenario is that the two major banks, CPB and Bank of Cyprus, will not open again, whereas the smaller banks will reopen, according to regulations.

 

 

Reactions to the decision of the Cypriot Parliament

 

Eurogroup

-         Following the rejection of the deposits levy by the Cypriot Parliament, Eurogroup's President Jeroen Dijsselbloem made the following announcement: "I take note of the decision of the Cypriot parliament on the government's proposal for a one-off stability levy. I confirm that the Eurogroup stands ready to assist Cyprus in its reform efforts and reiterate the position of the Eurogroup as I stated yesterday."

-         In an interview to a Dutch TV channel, Mr. Dijsselbloem reportedly said that the eurozone's bailout proposal for Cyprus still stands and won't be more than the previously agreed upon amount of 10 billion euros. "Cyprus was granted some freedom, but it will have to settle with the maximum amount of 10 billion euros," Mr. Dijsselbloem said, adding that he was disappointed by the outcome of the vote. "The conditions of the proposal are still valid. The ball is now really in Cyprus's court," he said.

 

European Commission – IMF – ECB

-         No announcements were made by the European Commission nor the IMF so far, with representatives refusing to comment on the developments. It is reported that the EC, which was taken by surprise following yesterday's rejection, is waiting to see how talks between Cyprus and Russia will evolve, before taking an official position on the issue.

-         The ECB reportedly gave a time extension to Cyprus, confirming that it would not stop liquidity to the Cypriot banks, after having taken into consideration the Parliament's vote. The ECB said that in order to continue to grant liquidity to the Cypriot banks is to secure their solvency.

 

Germany

-         A close associate of German Chancellor reportedly rushed to say yesterday, after the voting, that there will not be a rescue plan and help to Cyprus if the requirements are not met.

-         German Finance Minister reportedly expressed his sadness for the decision of the Cypriot Parliament to reject the deposits' levy plan, adding that no one else but Cyprus is responsible for the country's current situation.

 

 

Press coverage

 

Today's press coverage in Greece and Cyprus continues to be extended, focusing on the decision of the Cypriot Parliament, the possible consequences to Eurozone and the potentials with Russia.

 

Main Greek Newspaper headlines

-         Ethnos: Dramatic hours for Cyprus and Europe. They are both seeking for a 'plan B'

-         Eleftheros Typos: Cyprus dared a 'no' to Germany

-         Kathimerini: The 'no' is a test to Cyprus and Eurozone

-         Naftemporiki: Cyprus' 'no' is changing things in Eurozone

-         Imerisia: Rapid developments

-         Ta Nea: Two options: dead-end and Putin

 

Main Cypriot Newspaper headlines

-         Fileleftheros: Two rescue scenarios

-         Haravgi: A dignity 'no'

-         Alitheia: Russian roulette

-         Simerini: The flirt with Russia gives a light at the end of the tunnel

-         Cyprus Mail: The MPs are rejecting the bailout agreement

 

 

We will update you for any further developments.

 

 

Kind regards,

Marianna

 

Marianna Tantele

Account Manager

Financial Communication & Retail

V+O COMMUNICATION

 

A 91 Michalakopoulou str., 115 28 Athens, Greece

T +30 211 7501219

M +30 6948 008684

W www.vando.gr

 

 

 

 

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