Macro View: Currency War replaces QE
Non-Independent Investment Research
I have been presenting this macro view throughout Europe all week - the main points being:
2013 looks more and more likely to be the year where the economic crisis moves into being a political crisis, where politicians will face a strong anti-political-elite vote as seen by the falling governments in Bulgaria and Rumania, the 25% vote for Grillo in Italy and the establishment of the Anti-EU party in Germany.
Increased political risk increases volatility - and is often the end game in a macro trend, but first we see desperate moves by many politicians and policy makers to weaken their currencies as this is now the only game left....
I think the balance of 2013 will be about FX exposure and the bulk of the attribution to return will come from holding the right currencies rather than holding the right stocks......
I do realise that making the presentation public without the "voice over" is always asking for interpretations, but feel free to contact me directly if any questions arise.
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Saxo Bank
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