Prepared for collapsing house sales in Q4

The lead/lag of mortgage into house sales is stunning….below our Q4 outlook

 

This work is done in co-operation with my macro partner……

 

Conclusion:  Be long fixed income over equity from now through end of 2014….. I remain 80% long in my beta portfolio…. 2.25% target for Q4 – and retest of old low in yield in 2014. Market is not ready for the dramatic slow-down coming…

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

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