Overall comments:
The Stress Indicators may need to be renamed: "Complacency Indicators" – The market is sleeping – ignoring systemic, VaR risk, and valuation conservatism – this DOES NOT mean however we can't go higher first. The repricing of None-tapering is
Impacting yield curve which in my opinion drives absolutely everything……..
We have since 3.00% in 10 Y US yield called for return to 2.25% - (September 9th interview on Saxo TV: Why I'm moving to 80% in fixed income: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/jakobsen-moving-80-portfolio-bonds-1020127498)
We remain with that call and still see even lower rates when the economic reality hits home - This is our projection from June 24th, 2013:
Headlines:
Comment: Drives EVERY asset in the world – nothing is excluded.
Comment: Considering the equity optismism it's a poor showing….
Comment: Up on stocks as market reprice FOMC is the easy trade, but market and prices elevated – still, though, "relatively" cheaper than in early May..
Comment: We note that Gasoline price is big part of "momentum change" in surveys (We value survey's value overall as ZERO – it's a questionnaire for Christ sake!)
Comment: EURUSD certainly not driven by relative rate spread – biggest spread in memory… something needs to give…..
Comment: Should support Gold toward our 1525 $ target end of Q4
Med venlig hilsen | Best regards
Steen Jakobsen | Chief Investment Officer
Saxo Bank A/S | Philip Heymans Allé 15 | DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00 | Direct: +45 39 77 62 23 | Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00
Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen
Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com
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