Sunday Macro quarterbacking (Links and small comment)

 

Dear All,

 

On a weekend after a big down week for risk it's tempting to go for more....but as one of these links shows a sell off needs constant new fuel.

 

My take remains that market is over-reacting to chances of early Fed hike and as such the move is big....(but still expecting my 30% correction later..).. but the bigger risk is the market itself.

 

Look at every stock market sell-off (not the 1-2% down moves) and they are all about  VaR models exploding. 

 

Illiquidity, discontinues pricing is the real enemy for BTFD crowd - so Monday morning I will be looking for "illiquidity moves" & profit taking in trades to pay for loses...' - if they materialize then the market will start "feeding itself".....

 

Market is clearly overleveraged and overconfident but.. 169x times before the market has beeen up 4% in less than 30 days!

 

Enjoy,

 

 

 

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Steen

 

 

Weekend MACRO reading - a list of links & chart I came across:

S&P Down - performance now negative for DOW, Russel3000.....and DAX:http://ronsen.blogspot.dk/

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The Three Stocketers: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46718.html

Spot the difference! SPX and IEF performance YTD:https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/495678963222843392

Too soon to celebrate drop in long term unemployment: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-too-soon-to-celebrate-the-drop-in-long-term-unemployment/

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Steen's Chronicle: Three thins cant be hidden long: The Sun, The Moon and the Truth:https://twitter.com/saxobank/status/495299472524464128

Sceptic on sell-off: Here it is the Big sell off.. has been wrong the past 169 times:http://managed-futures-blog.attaincapital.com/2014/08/01/here-it-is-the-big-sell-off-has-been-wrong-the-past-169-times/

Attached charta:

Annual US Auto sales peaked?

 

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