Dear All,
I have written the foreword for 2015 Outrageous Predictions below but would love to see you engage in offering your most "unlikely big impact event to upset our lifes in 2015"……
I hope you have a nice week-end,
Steen
Outrageous Predictions: A reckoning's coming
URL link: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/outrageous-predictions-a-reckonings-coming-2541920
· False sense of security enveloping markets as 2015 looms
· US wane and China rise creating volatile superpower clash
Get ready for our Outrageous Predictions 2015
·
Outrageous Predictions is back, and we would like you to be a part of it! Send us your "outrageous prediction" for the upcoming year (or quarter) to have a chance to be included in our successful publication. If your prediction is chosen to be the best, you can even win one of our VIP prizes.
How to send in your prediction
- Comment on Steen Jakobsen's opening piece in the section below
- Squawk on our Outrageous Predictions page or
- Click here to tweet your prediction with #2015OP
By Steen Jakobsen
Standing on the doorstep to 2015, we are experiencing near perfect conditions for momentum and equity investment. Inflation has fallen to its lowest since the 1980s, interest rates have followed, and energy is relatively stable.
Corrected for inflation, oil at $80/barrel today equals $20-40/b in the 1970s.
Low volatility has given investors a false sense of security that could lead to the biggest upset in 2015.
Central bankers meanwhile have become the generals in an economic war in which the final tool in the box - competitive currency devaluations – merely exports problems overseas.
Nowhere exemplifies this better than Japan after the latest bazooka launch by Shinzo Abe threatens to become an out-of-control, inflation-stoking missile. Japan may have bought the global markets a further quarter or two of protection but the real world will have its say.
Wither Japan in 2015 if Shinzo Abe's policies spiral out of control? Photo: Thinkstock
We saw it for one week of mayhem in October. If that's anything to go by, we are in for a rollercoaster ride in 2015. Tangible assets and production sit at all-time lows. Paper money investment has crowded out productive capital while societies are dominated by hairdressers and bankers. We're losing the art of manufacturing.
Meanwhile the power of the US of A is waning as China rises and when the superpower pecking order changes, volatility and war ensue.
Nothing is ever given and Outrageous Predictions remains an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside. By imagining the most negative scenarios and events you will have a better chance of navigating the turmoil.
And we at Saxo Bank remains convinced higher volatility and a potential move towards a mandate for change is upon us as macro thinking enters a final fight to the death before we can again put our faith in people, ideas, education and change rather than hollow promises.
2015 will be a tough year but potentially also the year we look back at as the nadir. As Winston Churchill famously said: "If you are going through hell, keep going".
-- Edited by Martin O'Rourke
Steen Jakobsen is CIO and chief economist at social trading leader Saxo Bank
RECOMMENDED COMMENT
20h
Japan: After the IMF-recommended sales tax increase is completed, economic growth fails to pick up, markets realize that Bank of Japan's asset purchases will not be increased and JPY and Nikkei plummet. The drop in value is deemed to be proof that Abenomics has failed, and the narrow support for the current monetary policy in the board of BoJ is lost, and BoJ will first decrease asset purchases. USDJPY crashes to 100, where it was at the beginning of 2014.
Europe: signs that France and Italy would be moving toward leaving the euro area force Brussels to abandon the enforcement of the two- and six packs, which put limits on the budget deficits, breaking the EU-level macroprudential framework. In retaliation, German demands for tighter monetary policy become louder, and chancellor Merkel will be forced to stop QE-plans and markets begin to expect a rate increase, forcing yields higher, which only aggravates the debt- and deficit problem. EURUSD rallies as hopes for QE is lost.
19h
EURCHF 1.05
17h
Be fearfull when others are greedy. I see the biggest crash in history following this gigantic mooney priting bubble. After the bubble blows i see a New Word Order where mooney looses value and people start trading goods again. In my outrageous prediction i see the end of capitalism as we know it. I m not giving numbers to tradable instruments cause i see them ending and markets freezing with no value at all. Am i beeing to outrageous? :)
16h
Hi presume you mean JPY soars (third sentence)
16h
At least 1 country will leave the Euro in 2015
14h
Gold reaches $2500 as Russia invades Estonia and Latvia !
12h
Ole Hansen's outrageous prediction for 2015 to come true once again
11h
First semester :Everything is fine ; Oil continues to slide lower, a boon for the USA and China, Europe is upset by social protests, France - Italy see their Govt Bonds rates jump much higher , the shorting of their bonds is an easy trade, so Euro goes down to 1,18 $ , as a consequence of social unrests continental europe , the GBP is stronger , a wave of entrepreneurs leaves France for the UK. The US $ jumps up to 96 on the DXY index , Gold-Silver lose another 10%, Russia slowly digest eastern ukraine while China reinforces its power in Asia. the JPY reach 145 Yen/ $ ;
Second semester , the situation gets sour ; after a wide unrest in Japan, the citizens are running on banks to withdraw their cash , exchange it for US $ , and they dump their japanese government bonds , the BOJapan interest shoot up but to no help, total freeze of financial system in japan, Mr Kuroda dumps its mountain of US T bonds , the US economy start to tank . Hedge funds are betting on a DJ-SP crash.
11h
Equities:
Best - PSI or IBEX up more than 20% in 2015
Worst - India lower more than 10% in 2015
Bonds:
Best - long US 10Yr for target Yield 1.50%
Worst - short High Yield all over
Commodities:
Gold at 2000 usd
Crude at 50usd
Sugar up more than 100%
8h
This comment has been redacted
5h
The US economy will falter and the USD plunge
3h
ECB will do whatever it takes, QE... :P
Med venlig hilsen | Best regards
Steen Jakobsen | Chief Investment Officer
Saxo Bank A/S | Philip Heymans Allé 15 | DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00 | Direct: +45 39 77 62 23 | Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00
Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen
Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com
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