Stress Indicators - What stress?

 

Crisis update: Russia CDS slight down but Greek yield continues higher – although a far cry from "Crisis 1.0" in 2011/2012.

 

 

Greek stocks down 33% YTD vs. 3.0% for STOXX50.

 

 

Interesting divergence between the US and World Markets – US making new highs but Global markets is considerable below prior highs (Late summer)…also stuck below 50 SMA, but January and new money is soon arriving. Listening to CNBC US show it seems its only a matter of how high the market goes next year J

 

 

 

Saxo's Euro growth predictor – new low (meaning biggest stimulus in years!) – the lead/lag is NINE month – i.e prepare for July/September European rebound in growth…

 

This is THE problem for markets and FED in 2015: Inflation and its "leading indicators" continues to make new lows……Fed's dual mandate is under attack from dis-inflation now…..

 

Meanwhile in Central Bank-land – Balances are shrinking not rising if you exclude BOJ – Again – The world "perceives" marginal cost of capital as low to lower, while reality  is high to higher…..

 

 

 

Since April US Real rates risen from -1.50 to -0.80 – or 70 bps rise – Hmm… but that's fact – who needs facts?

 

Another fact – Inbound containers is for some reason falling hard in the US after steep rise in Q2 and Q3 – indication Q4 is going to be tough?

 

Finally,

 

A full PDF attached. I wish you all a Great Happy New Year and I got feeling 2015 is getting really exciting if you like volatility.

 

Steen

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

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