Happy New Year - 2015 was an amazing macro year, 2016 will be even more exciting.....

"May the New Year bring you courage to break your resolutions early! My own plan is to swear off every kind of virtue, so that I triumph even when I fall!" 
― Aleister Crowley, Moonchild

 

2015 was  an exciting macro year, probably the most interesting since the GFC crisis started:

 

·        Policy makers went into overdrive and still failed – the lower for longer was dismissed, only for ECB to turn up late to a party ending. I love the timing of ECB and Europe,' better late than not at all' seems the motto of choice. The refugees will add to investment & growth in Europe in 2015 making ECB look out of line…..

 

·        Fed hiked "in spite" and will probably take Q1 growth as sign of confirmation – realizing too late that US economy can't tolerate higher rates..

 

·        Three years of falling emerging markets – consensus claims there will be a fourth year, of course I doubt that….

 

·        Oil going to sub-25?  Market seems to forget that Iran has been exporting oil forever, just not "legally"… plus OPEC needs production ceiling if Saudi et al wants to maintain the power of the region….

 

Finally, as 2015 close – the long warned signal for Fixed Income to sell off have come: today my "models" sold 10 and 30 Y US bonds plus went short both LQD and IEF – interesting close…!!!! Indeed….

 

 

 

 

2015 was the failure of central planning and the "asset allocation" year was the worst EVER – according to Bianco Research (Thank you Jim Perry !!!)

 

http://www.arborresearch.com/bianco/?p=113797

 

 

 

Let me end the year by wishing the best of luck and prosperity in 2016 – I promise it will be exciting year – Never has there been more opportunities, never have the policy makers been further away from the "the truth" and consensus than now, and of course our dear politicians are hopeless lost in a world of fantasies with reality catching up to their "pretend-and-extend" – You can run from Greece going bankrupt, but you can't hide from millions of refugees!

 

I had the pleasure of meeting many of you from this email list and I must say I was impressed by your commitment and willingness to discuss! Thank you for welcoming me all of you!

 

Safe travels into 2016 and Au Revoir,

 

Steen

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

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