| It's that time of the year again: when the pundits look back and either tell you "I told you so", or "mea culpa", or some variant in between. I don't really like looking back – except where the past holds some lessons for the future – but it sure has been an "interesting" year.
Bond yields have remained pretty flat over the past twelve months, but there are now clear signs of stress in credit. One indication is the severe flattening of the US yield curve, and another is that high yield debt is now coming under pressure. World money supply is no longer growing, and there is mounting evidence of a looming shortage of US dollars emerging, which could put the US currency bear phase into reverse next year. All the usual caveats – China, North Korea, Catalonia, Trump and Brexit, inter alia – still can't hold back the enthusiastic wave of dumb money. This wave has, in the words of Professor Scott Galloway of NYU, led to unprecedented multiples and zero accountability in the FANG world, of which I have written about at length for the past year (and will come back to later in this piece). | 
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