Macro Digest: When 10Y US FI touch upper channel - S&P sellls off??

Two critical important charts before the weekend:

 

The first one courtesy of Marketwatch and the chart itself from:  Arbeter Investments LLC president Mark Arbeter, CMT

 

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-decades-long-downtrend-in-interest-rates-finally-over-2018-02-08?mod=mw_share_twitter

 

The key phrase in this piece being:

 

"….Arbeter noted that while rates may not yet be ready to soar, equity investors may have reason to be worried. When the yield bumped up against the downtrend line before, as happened in 1987, 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2007, bad things happened on Wall Street."

 

 

Point: Whether we break the uptrend or not, there is "negative feed-back loop" into risk assets.

 

 

The second is just as important and comes from @SongMun67  - Song Mun who pointed out in direct twitter:

 

Markets have logaritmic nature. Semilog charts are much better in long terms

 

 

Here the point is- we are not broken up …… yet…

 

Also note this – We at Saxo Bank have developed our own CREDIT  IMPULSE models, this from my Head of Economics, Christopher Dembik;

 

https://twitter.com/Dembik_Chris/status/961918733190131712

 

 

 

 

NASDAQ Future could close below its daily 100 SMA:

 

 

 

Maybe it's not as coincidence markets traffic signal is still on YELLOW

 

 

 

John Hardy has done excellent video explaining this week in details:

 

https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/market-volatility-special-report-saxostrats-9249597

 

 

Safe Travels,

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

 

 

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