Macro Digest: New Dollar weakness despite higher rates? We think so....

 

 

US more driven by Trump and the overall theme of de-dollarization than by interest differentials….

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-sanctions-ryabkov/russia-says-will-not-delay-response-to-u-s-sanctions-ria-idUSKBN1HN0R8

 

Some charts:

 

"classic" 20/50/100 SMA

 

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/985878002507579392

 

Donchian 100 momentum model – 88.23 infliction point

 

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/985877884375052290

 

My own "model"….

 

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/985877158047383552

 

 

12 Month long-term trend

 

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/985876922239512577

 

 

Clearly many (consensus) keeps wanting /thinking interest differentials will again play a role, but is more the case that FX like EQUITY before is now trading on expectations of monetary + geopolitical risk more than fundamentals.

 

The real question of course being: 1. Where will outflow of Dollar go and which market is big  enough in capital market terms to capture it?

 

I think GBP big winner and probably, despite discount, AUD vs. USD

 

But for now watch dollar next few days…. I think GBP leading higher is "old school" confirmation of move towards weaker Dollar.

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

 

 

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