torsdag den 30. august 2018

Macro Digest: Italy, Tencent and Trade war.......the beginning of the end (?)

There is Trump vs. China with the imminent raise of 200 bln. of tariffs on China on September 6th, but here in Europe EU "Finance minister" Moscovici is hitting the headline this morning with harsh and confrontational interview in Italian papers:

 

 

EU'S MOSCOVICI SAYS IF EU'S 3 PERCENT DEFICIT/GDP LIMIT IS BROKEN IT WOULD CREATE DIFFICULTIES "THAT I DON'T EVEN WANT TO IMAGINE"

 

http://www.askanews.it/economia/2018/08/31/moscovici-italia-non-pu%C3%B2-lamentarsi-corregga-conti-2019-top10_20180831_023657/

 

The interview ask for a clear commitment for budget deficit reduction of 0.6% and keeping inside the 3% - he also points out that Italy been main beneficiary already on "flexibility"…. This is a very tough line which is also

Followed up by announcement that PM Conte won't seek second mandate (You can't blame him for that…)

 

Unlike Greece 180-degree turn there seems to be a deep routed wish for the Populist parties in Italy to seek confrontation with the EU and now for EU to take them one… This DOES NOT bode well for Italian assets and probably will spill-over into the EUR as well. This is the start of the "budget season" for all countries – it's always full of headlines, strikes and trouble, but this year the stake are higher..

 

 

Italy – Germany 10 Y Government Yield spread…

 

 

 

Italian 10 YR BTP Yield vs. 5 YR CDS

 

 

 

Tencent dropped 5% in Hong Kong trading hours yesterday on this:

 

Tencent's online gaming problems in China just got worse (CNN)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/china-to-control-number-of-new-online-games-for-children-s-eyes

 

 

China is cracking down on online gaming, adding to worries for Tencent.

Shares in the top Chinese internet company plummeted more than 5% in morning trading in Hong Kong on Friday, after Beijing announced plans to limit the number of new online games and restrict the amount of time kids spend playing on electronic devices.

Tencent (TCEHY) is the world's biggest gaming company with a huge part of its business in China, a market where it was already facing other problems caused by regulators. Its stock has plunged nearly 30% since January, wiping out more than $160 billion in market value.

Chinese authorities will "control the number of new online games, explore an age-appropriate reminder system in line with national conditions, and take measures to limit the use time of minors," the Education Ministry announced in a statement late Thursday. It said the measures are part of a government effort to reduce nearsightedness in children and adolescents.

Tencent is already hurting from increased regulation of the gaming industry. The company reported a rare decline in profit earlier this month, blaming the drop mainly on regulators not approving licenses that allow companies to make money from new mobile games.

During an earnings call, Tencent President Martin Lau assured investors that the restrictions were temporary. But the latest government announcement adds to concerns about an increasingly restrictive environment for tech firms in China.

China is the world's largest gaming market.

Tencent has still not gained approval from Chinese authorities to make money from some of its most popular mobile games such as "PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds." Regulators also blocked a game called "Monster Hunter: World" for which big sales were expected. Another game, "Honor of Kings," came under intense scrutiny last year for allegedly causing addiction in young people.

Tencent and Netease (NTES), another major game developer, should be more resilient to the new restrictions than smaller firms, according to Karen Chan, an analyst at investment bank Jefferies. The industry heavyweights have already introduced control systems to regulate how much time children spend playing their games, she said in a note to investors.

But Chan acknowledged that the impact of the new measures on Tencent and others won't become clear until more details are announced. Questions remain over what the limit will be on the number of new games, how it will be implemented and whether it will further delay the approval process, she said.

The ministry's announcement also took aim at parents and educators, saying they should reduce the time kids spend on smartphones and tablets and encourage children to play and exercise outside for at least an hour a day.

China is the world's largest gaming market, accounting for a quarter of global revenue, according to market research firm Newzoo. The firm forecasts China's total gaming revenue will reach $38 billion in 2018.

-- Catherine Wang contributed to this report.

 

 

https://nordic.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-trump-wants-tariff-on-200-billion-of-chinese-goods-2018-8?r=US&IR=T

 

 

 

 

 

 

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