Stress Indicators - Still risk-on....barely, but cracks are showing...

This week's Stress Indicators – We have added a few new charts:

 

Gasoline prices have historically been a big factor for consumption in the US – YTD we are way above the "normal" rise in the US (Before summer driving starts…)

 

 

 

US Real Rates – with the focus on FOMC and their in my opinion slightly mis-interpreted January Minutes focus will be on real rates as indication for policy changes. We have seen some "bottoming", but nothing to scare anyone yet. The chart does show how aggressively FOMC has been in terms of lowering "cost of capital" with little to show for it except higher stock market prices.

 

I would also like to point out that the Abe-nomics experiment is running out of steam if inflation is really the target (Personally I think he is more concerned about the 23^rd Election to the House of Concillors)

 

Finally, the star performing sector since the Prince of Italy, Draghi promised to safe us all, banking is seeing some worse levels in CDS…..

 

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

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