Fixed income and ECB's say: All fine - The rest of our indicators screams: Be careful out there!

This week's  Stress Indicators include a few new charts, but also some which have become redundant:

 

The 10 Year spread between France and Germany have totally lost value. The ECB and French government is forcing domestic players in France to buy government bonds due to regulation and pro-government incentive structures.

 

France and Netherland are two economically challenged countries in the core of Europe which continues to perform Dirigisme instead of attending to reforms.

 

 

I have changed Denmark 5 YR CDS for Slovenia in order to monitor its rise to the "next big thing" in Euro debt crisis. Today the CDS spread fell due to good bond auction.

 

 

Meanwhile Europe's depositors – mainly in the weak Club Med(Greece+ Portugal) continues to take money out of the country – even increasing the speed with which they do it – sure Mr. Draghi – ECB has been a great success……(The shown data is only including January as IMF data is as slow as their willingness to accept changes…Imagine when March and April data is in?)

 

 

In Saxo Bank we believe the banking sector leads- hence it is with some concern we note JPMorgan continues to trade weak vs. its long-term averages. The hero of Wall Street Dimon seems to have lost some love?

 

Finally, I have added Copper (1^st future) – which is said to have a Phd in Economics as its normally "leads" the direction of the growth – again – Not good news:

 

 

Safe travels,

 

Steen

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
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