Macro: Monday Morning Quarterbacking

 

 

Comment: CRB – The commodity Super Cycle must be declared deceased. The up move after stock market low in March 2009 has now be violated for trend.

Impact: One trick Pony economies relying on commodity export

 

Comment: The US 10 Year broke higher again now probably targeting the upper banks just shy of 3.00 – really 2.75/85 level. We have to remember that ultimately this is not Fed hiking rates but normalizing which will mean FED will try to put the genie back into the bottle come summer.

 

 

Comment: This is chart inspired by T-theory – where the concept is the market goes/up and down in equal time spans…. I use it for timing… Now we have broken the Mid-support which means we will move towards lower range 1529,00 in SPX.

 

 

Comment: The US Dollar index has been tight range since early 2012: 78/79-88/89 and overall broadly in 73/89 since crisis started. Overall the US Dollar is still undecided but is building momentum north.

 

 

Comment: Wow – and more wow. China remains the elephant in the room. The Chinese growth miracle is quickly fading and what’s even interesting: The Party has given it its blessing. China is either moving towards major reforms or major reality wake-up either way China is the place to monitor for balance of 2013. They are the difference for world growth and demand for commodities.

 

 

Comment: The Emerging markets – the export and commodity driven markets is suffering from China, world growth and their own lack of reforms.

 

 

Comment: Major divergence – this is something to watch. I will re-balance my All Weather model today and look for entry points for long 10 Yr from here despite the targets seen above.

 

 

 

 

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