MACRO TREND CHANGE - HIGHER unemployment rate for balance of 2013 / and into 2014

 

One of the major calls we have for balance of 2013 is the DRAMATIC change to employment – the combination of depressed participation rate and weak "REAL GROWTH" – plus Obamacare and bad jobs, leads our models to predict a big reversal on the recent trends. The below further supports this assumption.

 

Conclusion:  There is MORE QE coming – not less in 2014 – tapering is temporary side-show which will be replaced by dis-inflation and zero growth in 2014. I'm working bigger piece on these issues for next week but thought this important enough to share with you..

 

This is in Danish and from one of the most respected cyclical analyst here  Svend Jørgen Jensen….. Its shows in top section: Conference Board Help wanted online index and below employment… point:  The top leads and its turned down…

 

 

 

http://www.conference-board.org/data/helpwantedonline.cfm

 

http://www.demetra.dk/ugeoverblikket/usa-annoncering-efter-arbejdskraft/

 

 

 

http://www.demetra.dk/ugeoverblikket/usa-arbejdstid-pr-uge/

 

 

Pundits tend to forget that in an economy it's not the amount of people working which makes up GDP – but the amount of HOURS WORKED. Obama-care with its 30-hours rule is forcing retail- and service industry to reduce their employment contracts below 29 hours per worked to reduce cost of Obama-care….!!!!

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

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