Stress Indicators: Financial conditions tight & risk is getting close to OFF levels

Dear All,

 

Attached the weekly batch of chart on the economy – a few "stand outs":

 

Financial Condition – US Real rates

 

 

Remarkable hike in real rates – This will not only hurt housing sector but also give signal for MORE QE not less….

 

We often use AUD vs. JPY as leading risk indicator. AUD represent commodity & Asian growth (via China link) and JPY has been favorite funding currency. Clearly there is warning signal as we are back to November 2012 level – or back to zero in Abenomics terms.

 

 

Our favorite growth indicator – makes no real sense as if anything growth is coming down, but recent "improvement in China" seems to drive it.

 

 

Slovenia is back at  March level – warming up for a busy Q4 event calendar for the EU?

 

 

US Index a critical point – wedge breaking or?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Economist

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com