A few chart Macro chart which caught my eye.....

Off to Poland, Norway & France this week – took these charts with me:

 

Bank of Italy does nice leading growth indicator called: Eurocoin – here correlated with Iron Ore 62% - as in link with China… if Iron ore leads  è  Europe growth is -0,25% by end of year..

 

 

This is the "classic": Fed balance sheet and S&P, but this time adjusted for Tapering.. as I measure YoY change instread of nominal growth – arguing that the marginal change is net negative – or correction coming..

 

 

 

Germany export now stalling before falling – this from IFo direct…

 

 

 

I remain a very constructive bull on Poland..

 

 

 

Finally,

 

Stocks above 50 m.a getting concerning..

 

 

 

It's ECB week:

 

Consensus:

 

 

My take:

 

Cut in deposit & repo: 10 bps.

A lot of talk – and – I mean a lot of talk…..from Draghi on how ready he is to act, but QE will be promised not delivered.

 

Still see EURUSD @ 1.3500 – the low – Reaction post ECB= 1.40+ test…..

 

Safe week,

 

Steen

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

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