EURUSD - time to go long?

 

 

I run two simple models which keeps my head from spinning both of them right now screams: Take profit on short EURUSD – and if anything look for retest of 1.4000+

 

The only way to play is to buy EUR c USD p, x= 1.3750 – Exp. 6/6/2014 (4 days=  15 tics)

 

Reverse engineering that view I come up with this:

 

ü  ECB will deliver "less than expected…." – I.e: Cut in depo + repo but not QE yet….

ü  ECB action will be seen supporing "EURO" assets (bonds and maybe equity)

ü  The US relative lead over EUROPE will reverse. Europe have started the year weaker than the US – the role will now reverse with QE outlook (although not yet) and more tapering (meaning killing what meaker growth there is left=

ü  Positioning – the SEPC IMM data continunes to track higher…

 

Model: Hat-tip; Matt Hastings.

 

 

Our JABA model sees this path forward…..

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

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