Scotland says NO, but what does it mean for markets and politics

Most polls and early results have No vote winning a by nice margin 54-57 in most exit polls and polls…

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/live-scotland-referendum-poll-results-4284826

 

The NET market reaction is that GBP is higher, based on the fact that the NO vote clears the way for Bank of England to continue the hike path

 

GBPUSD and both EURGBP should go higher on the final result but the GBP move is slightly overdone in technical sense. Buy the rumor sells the facts will play out soon.

 

We have Quebec like situation in Scotland now – The independence talk is gone for now but the next item on the agenda politically is UK referendum next year where the independence and anti-EU vote will continue to play a role. 2017 is the big year, if the promised EU votes takes place……

 

EU did not do themselves any favors by ruling Scotland out of EU even before the election results was known. Scots, like danes, don't take outside pressure easy especially from something like the EU.

 

The main take away from macro perspective is the move towards very nationalistic and domestic driven political agendas. The EU and global agendas now plays 3^rd violin as lack of growth and reforms become real issue.

 

The real economy is at least politically catching up to the artificial markets, so while the markets celebrate RISK ON again this morning, the politicians around Europe is taking notes: Change or lose your job! Just ask the Labor party in the UK who almost lost their ability to get back into government as 30 MP's would have been lost overnight with a Yes.

 

Steen Jakobsen

 

 

 

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