Macro Digest charts. ITALY 2-10 Yr yield cries: ALERT, ALERT, ALERT

A quick note as there has been a number of "break-outs" and risk warnings activated.

 

 

First, and most important.

 

I have long argued that Italian 2 yr vs. 10 yr is excellent predictor of CONTAGION on Greece… and sure enough tonight we have had massive spike!

 

2-10 if reflecting MUCH higher short-end risk (higher yield ) Italy because with France only countries who has done NOTHING to reign in fiscal deficit plus CLUB MED members..

 

 

 

In other news:

 

 

MODEL breaks/signals:

'

 

SELLING Gilts ahead of UK election this week:

 

 

 

Similar, BUNDS have also broken down – Seems QE no longer is live? I have to smile at everyone falling over themselves to sell BUNDS here – I'm at NET buyer of German BUNDS at >0.50%

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the only market even remotely likely to hike – The US is far from triggering a signal…….

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND.. Atlanta FED GDPNOW have Q2 GDP at 0.8% ….

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

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