Preview Steen's Chronicle. Major change to macro outlook next six month

I have been very quiet on positioning since q3/2013 as I have been in same exposure. 75% Fi, first in Germany/Denmark then US.

Now however multiple indicators suggest we about to have major correction in the ever present complacency and status qvo.

The main views which will be explained in detail over weekend.


This week's move in global yield is only entree to bigger move when FED does go ahead with their MARGIN CALL probably as early as June.

Yellen speech yesterday was very Fischer-like and so was other Fed policy makers on the wire. This indicates to me that line is now... We need to learn against asset inflation.... IE MARGIN Call

US data is about to improve, at least relative to expected. I see better data on simple mean reverting....

Overall...

Yields 10 yrs core government could move a full 100 bps.... Yes, 100 bps..

EUR USD will see 1.15 /1.18

AUD. 8100/.82

Crude WTI will trade 70/80

EM com. will outperform.

Credit, equity will see 10/20% correction but rebound later on recession risk

More later. First off to London. And UK election.

Thatcher 1979 was landmark election / catalyst... This may will be same.

Safe travels

Steen
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