Macro Digest: Paradigm shift leading to risk-off?

Short note with charts for this week major trends:

 

Gold have rebounded from low – DESPITE – risk-off/China, new Greek talks issues:

 

This remains my biggest confidence trade for H2 2015: Long Gold (note to follow on China …..)

 

Managers are the most short they have been in GOLD!!!!!!!

 

 

 

Gold in CNY is even more interesting – of course with devaluation, bubbles in stocks and housing market and no incentive to deposit more cash in state banks GOLD looks interesting….

 

 

 

 

Stock market valuations!

 

Wow – this is as low as in October 2014……. Very interesting from here, but please on the lack of breadth in the stock market (single names driving rally…)

 

 

 

And GLOBAL market has taken a hit – total loss from peak? 5.000.000.000.000 US$ but still above

 

 

 

Meanwhile in REALITY-land…. Europe will catch up on US improvement shortly due to lagging effect off lower energy, commodity and i-rates… as can be seen this chart is clearly mean-reverting…

 

 

 

After the price of money and energy has rally, it's now off again – meaning FULL IMPACT over last 12 month will start to work itself into the economy… (rule of thumb: it takes NINE month for full impact to work out….)

 

 

Finally High YIELD continues to lead S&P and energy & credit spreads continues to widen…

 

Full China analysis coming this p.m….

 

Overall:

 

I have not done a single trade the last three month, getting ready to buy what everybody hates.. more on this later.

 

Steen

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

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