Macro Digest: Crisis mode is now full blown! Final support in S&P @ 1800-00 (where does rescue come from?)

I hate to do this but today has made things even worse – you have all received my extensive coverage this week but here is selection of charts which sets up why we need to increase alertness and reduce risk tolerance..

 

My conclusions:

 

This is the END OF CENTRAL BANK planning….

 

Central banks are now totally impotent. Yes, ECB can buy bank papers, but it will only deflate the whole thing more.

 

This week can go down in financial history as the week where central planning central banking died – the 2016 version of the Berlin Wall coming down…it sounds 'worse' than is it..as this was always coming..

 

Fed, BOJ and ECB all been dovish but to no avail…….

 

This is either: End of debt cycle (and central bank planning) or a deep crisis leading to one more pretend-and-extend – either way there will be major il-liquidity where the fx pegs: Saudi and Hong Kong is likely to go. EM stocks could tank another 25% easily and oil could reach 20$ if not 15….

 

This means: CREDIT EVENT will happen. Danske Bank today higher has higher market cap than Deutsche Bank – go figure!!!!!!

 

Portugal 10 y rates is now higher than during the Troika time (>4.5%)

 

Italy has 400 bln. non-performing loans before this mini-crisis and a bond market owned by pensioners…!!

 

 

 

 

Comment: 4.5% is higher than IMF charged

 

 

 

 

Comment: ITL and PTE trade above recent highs…

 

 

 

 

Comment: Financial Stress now getting into early "Lehman territory"…

 

 

 

Comment: Every day a new credit event in energy……spill-over imminent to banking sector..

 

 

 

 

Comment: One day in heaven – now NEW highs… spreads

 

More than 50% of all debt in G-7 now below ZERO!!!!! Sign of immunity to lower rates..

 

 

 

Comment: Economics is getting worse – not better – "despite lower energy and rates…..and rising salaries…"

 

 

 

Comment: This chart is important.. USDJPY did lead yday into today… Most of the gain in USDJPY since the big Bazooka in October 2014 has now evaporated!!!!

 

Finally…..

 

 

Comment:  "Let's "hope" that 1800 holds this week otherwise we will revisit 2007 high of 1.580/1.600

 

 

I don't know where market goes from here, but I am getting more calls, more negatives sentiments reading than any time since Lehman…..!!! Since 2007 global debt has expanded by 57.000 billion – 70% of all liquidity creation by central banks is used to service old debt…

 

Everything that happens right now makes rates go EVEN more negative… and banks CANT make money w. negative rates..

 

Wall Street and Main Street has been following different paths since 2009, now they meet again……

 

ALERTNESS is mode of preference. Price actions rules and right now risk is 60/50 skewed to downside as central banks seems out of ammunition and worse ideas..

 

Do not despair – I don't have the 'keys' to the market – there is huge and fundamental values everywhere in the market, this note is merely to highlight: Don't be complacent on risk from here…..There will be attempts to "safe the market" clearly…..What I fear is the market action behind that desperate attempt…..prepare for a long spring……

 

Steen

 

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