Weekly Macro Stress Test - Less stress and some"odd" movers in Gold and mining...

Europe and US growth remains very disappointing although US have improved over the last week – (reducing "recession worry")…

 

 

ECB and EU politicians is still waiting for the NET GAIN from extremely low input costs to European – here it't my growth model (Equal parts yield, energy and currency) – we remain at extreme low levels:

 

 

 

Despite the recent rally… Financial Stress Remains elevated…

 

 

And the stress resides in European banking…

 

 

 

The policy rates and expectations is making new lows…

 

 

Fixed income volatility……remains elevated to…

 

Gold has broken neckline of downtrend for the first time years  - what is it telling us? That policy makers will go deep into negative yield or that inflation is coming back – or US$ about to sell off?

 

 

 

Gold mining ETF – GDX has had a tremendous year! This despite new lows in CRB and commodity….

 

Agriculture also starting to make a run……

 

 

 

But it all STILL depends on whether US$ will confirm its weakness or not…. We have very, very important close tonight for this month data….

 

 

 

 

Enjoy the weekend & safe travels,

 

Steen

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

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