Macro Digest: Increase GEO and FX risk into Inauguration on January 20th, 2017

In history the next few weeks has been extremely volatile:

 

 

Conclusion:

 

Buy Spot XAU/USD spot 1139.00 with stop below 1120.00

 

Increased market risk next three weeks as geo-political tension between China and the US coincides with what seems to be big FX outflow from China – a most dangerous cocktail.

 

This should be RISK negative & Gold/Metals positive.

====================================================

 

There is something "odd" going on right now and it has all to do with China…

 

China 1-day REPO is spiking and hard so…  13.5% vs. avg. 6% - this is seen a "crack down" on "speculators against the CNY, but of course also reflects what seems big pressure to get money out / devalue.

 

More and more geo-political analyst thinks China can give Obama as "goodbye present" in the shape of another major move (weaker in the CNY) before his last day in the office on January 20^th….

 

 

 

Add to this the oddity that BITCOIN is very bid to  (Bitcoin is prime vehicle used by Chinese speculators to avoid / getting money out)  - Bitcoin spiked more than 20%

 

Live map: http://boingboing.stfi.re/2016/12/26/real-time-map-shows-which-coun.html?sf=lwxwyvr#aa

 

 

 

 

Finally, overnight GOLD rallied big despite stronger overall USD…

 

 

 

The geo-political lines are being drawned up!

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38399712

 

 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMlmjXtnIXI

 

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

 

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