Newest macro presentation (WLP Partner today)

 

Dear All,

 

Attached the presentation for today's Saxo Bank WLP-presentation – there are some new themes which we needs to address (and will address in near future)

 

 

ü  Volatility – the low and implied plus Risk Parity and dynamic risk hedging

ü  Fed – inflation is cooling on them – 3 hikes to become 2?

ü  US dollar has made significant break down – confirming our fundamental stand with the technical

ü  Probability of recession is your MAIN call for 2017 è If you deem risk 50/50 or higher it's time to hedge (reduce eqi expo or buy bonds) – We see 60%+ risk…

ü  Bitcoin – telling us what? China VIX? Capital flight?

ü  China remain our key CONCERN and driver of macro in 2017

ü  EURUSD reached our minimum 1.1200 strong conviction…

ü  New conviction: Much lower oil – based on growth, OPEC repeat ceiling is not as effective, production non-OPEC continues to expand..

ü  ETF is single biggest risk..

 

Not addressed here but important:

 

ü  Housing bubbles: Canada (already impacting financial stocks), New Zealand, Australia and Norway….

ü  Geo-political risk: North Korea – pre – but most important post China Communist Part conference (November) =>> Risk of China "liberating N. Korean people?)

ü  UK Brexit

ü  New German-France axis means multi speed Europe? (Germany and France leads..some joins, some don't)

ü  China vs. Commodity leverage (financing, leverage, global demand)

 

 

I remain:

 

OW: Fixed income, gold, JPY,EUR, GBP

UW: Dollar,AUD(new), Oil, equity

 

 

Safe travels,

 

Steen

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

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