This week, the Halifax House Price Index said residential property prices in the UK recorded their first quarterly decline since 2012. The reasons given for this centred on affordability. House prices have apparently become too expensive given rising inflation and the squeeze on consumer spending which is beginning to be felt across the UK. While the Halifax House Price Index is only focused on residential property, it could be a highly relevant guide for commercial property. Consumers may start to struggle to a greater extent now that inflation has surpassed wage growth. Spending on a wide range of items, including houses, may fall and leave the retail sector, and the shopping centres which house it, in a more difficult situation. Therefore, buying a shopping centre operator such as Intu Properties (LON:INTU) could be seen as a contrarian investment. Its valuation may come under pressure in the short run if the outlook for consumers deteriorates further. But with a sound business model, appealing valuation and high income potential, it could be an appealing long-term investment. | |
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