fredag den 4. august 2017

Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash

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DAILY BULLETIN
Friday 4 August 2017
Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash
by Victor Hill | Economics | 15 mins. to read
Greek Tragedy
An imminent stock market crash is more likely than investors might suppose. My recurrent nightmare this summer, partially informed by the modern Thucydides, (of whom more below) is that a stock market correction will begin in London when the Brexit negotiations collapse, possibly as soon as late October. But there is no longer such a thing as country-specific market risk: a seizure in London will swiftly infect the entire world.

Mrs May is away hiking. One hopes the lady will have moments of repose. Meanwhile, a low-burn civil war has broken out within the British cabinet about our Brexit options. Chancellor Philip Hammond's preference for a transitional arrangement (neither in nor out) has gained traction – but there are forces arraigned which are bitterly opposed to this.

 
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Companies might make the decision to list their shares on a stock exchange for a number of reasons. Whether it be an exit opportunity for existing shareholders, to raise the profile of the business amongst its customers, or to set a value for the stock, there are many benefits of making the move from being a private business to being a public one.
 
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The UK retail sector faces a highly uncertain future. A weaker pound has pushed inflation gradually higher over the last year. It is now 60 basis points higher than the rate of wage growth. Therefore, consumer spending is likely to come under a degree of pressure. 
 
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