There is MASSIVE risk event today when South Africa's parliament have vote of confidence in President Zuma.
President Zuma stands for ALL that is wrong with SA – and as anyone who have read me over last five years know, I think SA is one political cycle away from big jump forward…….
https://www.ft.com/content/48a8fcd8-7b7f-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928
The "natural replacement" is still: Cyril Ramaphosa
The motion requires a simple majority of at least 201 members to vote in favour to succeed. Of the of the 400-member National Assembly, opposition parties jointly hold 151 seats. Presuming there is full attendance‚ 50 ANC members would need to vote to support the motion tabled by DA leader Mmusi Maimane"
Clearly 50 MP's is a lot but as the article states as well when the speaker Ms. Baleka Mbete(Who herself is part of ANC's top six) argued her surprising decision:
- She noted a secret ballot becomes necessary when "circumstances are toxic"
- (She also quoted) at length from the June Constitutional Court judgment granting her the discretion to decide on the voting method
These two lines from press conference shows: 1.) the strength on the Constitutional Court 2.) how even leadership in ANC find situation "toxixc
Even the charts agree something could happen – but which way will be driven by vote.
If President Zuma wins vote – SA is doomed for further disruption and recession, if he loses though, we are talking about PARADIGM shift in South African politics (including an anchoring of one of strong Constitutional frameworks in the world and certainly in Africa) – so this vote is not only for SA but also for all of Africa, as SA continues to lead for better of worse.
The chart clearly favor momentum for weaker ZAR, but remember this vote is disruptive / paradigm shifting, so "trend" means nothing, think GBP before and after Brexit times 5…!!!
The vote starts @ 1400 : https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/procedure-voting-secret-ballot-national-assembly
My FX guru: Mr. John Hardy will provide more detailed technical outlook on ZAR shortly…..
Med venlig hilsen | Best regards
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