mandag den 25. juli 2016

Mellon on the Markets

 
Mellon on the Markets

By Jim Mellon

The first month anniversary of Brexit was marked by an all-day debate in London hosted by the BBC and the admirable Intelligence Squared. I went along, partly out of curiosity, and partly to see my friend Dan Hannan, possibly the most articulate and passionate of the Brexiteers.

It being London, the audience was heavily stacked with disappointed Remainers, still sore and still hoping that it was all a bad dream. Get real guys and be democrats!

The Financial Times has been talking about economic collapse (and was doing so way before the referendum), but there is scant evidence of such Armageddon. That is despite the best effort of commentators, including the FT to create a "negative feedback loop". 

On every measure, the stock market in the UK has surpassed pre-Brexit levels, and it doesn't seem that growth in the UK is much worse, or even imperilled by, the vote. Property prices had already been stalling before the plebiscite – and a good thing, too. They were too high, buoyed by easy money and a chronic shortage of supply. They will continue to drift gently, enabling many people who had been utterly priced out of the market to now get on the fabled ladder. At the moment, house prices are 9x average earnings in the capital, which is disastrous for anyone starting out...

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 6,710.13, a decrease of 20.35 points.
  • The FTSE 250 rose 107.52 points to finish at 17,090.98.
  • The FTSE All Share dropped 4.79 points to finish at 3,639.01.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share finished at 745.01, up by 4.79 points.

Rumours of an imminent takeover approach for William Hill (WMH) from Rank and 888 have boosted the bookmaker's shares by 15.2p to 328.8p despite no formal moves having been made so far. The speculated price is in the region of £3 billion, which would imply an offer of roughly 360p a share and a premium of around 15% relative to Friday's close. Management said that they would listen to any offers, but that the rationale for such a deal was not clear to them at this time. The shares climbed by 15.20p to 328.80p.

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Pork specialist Cranswick (CWK) said that revenues in the three months ended 30th June were 11% higher than during the equivalent period of 2015 as exports to the Far East continued to grow rapidly. The integration of Crown Chicken is proceeding as planned and the company announced that it will be selling its Sandwich Factory subsidiary for a £15 million cash consideration in order to focus on its core operations. The shares rose 28p to 2,362p..

Insurer Hiscox (HSX) lifted its gross written premiums by 17.5% to £1,288.5 million during the six months ended 30th June as the retail, London and US branches all performed well. Profits before tax climbed to £206 million, in part due to the falling value of sterling. Management are considering opening an EU-based subsidiary should that be necessary to protect premiums in the event of Brexit. The shares fell by 2p to 1,067p.

Tomorrow's news today

Segro (SGRO) and Man Group (EMG) will release interim results.

Quote of the day

"Patience is the companion of wisdom."
- Saint Augustine

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