tirsdag den 12. juli 2016

RIP Bonds

 
RIP Bonds

By Filipe R Costa

Over the last few years, investors have been trying to front run central banks by purchasing bonds, in anticipation of huge price increases as the result of the heavy demand that stems from central banks as they unfold large-scale asset purchase programmes to boost inflation levels. It all started in the US, where Ben Bernanke spent trillions of dollars purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities in an attempt to reduce bond yields and thereby spur businesses and individuals to borrow, invest and spend more. But as the global economy is more interconnected than ever before, the same policy was followed the world over, which pushed global yields down and bond prices up. Even Japan, which was already running a decades-long expansionary policy, decided to become even bolder in its action.

Those who purchased European bonds ahead of the ECB over the last few years have certainly experienced massive capital gains, as yields have been pushed down by the intervention of the central bank. But at a point when yields are under water for maturities up to 10 years, there is a growing concern that we may be reaching the lower bound. We know there is a point at which people would prefer to keep the money under the mattress – we don't know exactly where that point lies, but we do know we're approaching it...

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 6,680.69, a decrease of 2.17 points.
  • The FTSE 250 rose 100.68 points to finish at 16,807.07.
  • The FTSE All Share climbed 2.64 points to finish at 3,613.66.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share finished at 720.77, up by 5.37 points.

Housebuilder Galliford Try (GFRD) confirmed that it is on track to deliver record full-year results with completions over the year ended 30th June up by 11% to 3,078 and margins improving at its Linden Homes subsidiary. The firm also has £3.5 billion in its order book for the new financial year meaning that 82% revenue of  target revenues are already secured. Full results will be released in mid-September, but shares in the business rose by 8.5% to 957p today.

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Online fashion retailer ASOS (ASC) reported that revenues during the four months ended 30th June were 30% higher than those in the same period of 2015, with sales in international markets up by 59%. However, margins dropped by 180 basis points due to a change in reductions strategy and planned price investments. ASOS.cn ceased operations in May with losses in line with expectations. The shares shot upwards by 172p to 4,473p.

Shares in recently listed confectioner Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) climbed 2.50p to 178p after it announced that revenues for the year ended 26th June rose by 12% to £92.6 million. Digital sales grew even faster and the company has continued its store opening programme since it completed its listing last month. Current trading is in line with management's expectations.  

Tomorrow's news today

Burberry (BRBY) and Barratt Developments (BDEV) will put out a trading statement.

Quote of the day

"Dictators never invent their own opportunities."
- R. Buckminster Fuller

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