fredag den 29. juli 2016

The Stock Market Most at Risk from Lower Oil Prices...

 
The Stock Market Most at Risk from Lower Oil Prices...

By Filipe R Costa

Back in 2014, and mostly due to the slump in oil prices, Russia fell into a downward spiral that saw the value of its currency slashed and its economy enter a recession. Almost two years later, the currency and the stock market market have recovered, but the economy is still underwater, with GDP declining for five straight quarters. While the economy recorded a better performance than many were anticipating, it may yet see its full recovery postponed by further oil price weakness. With VanEck Vectors Russia ETF up 21.6% year-to-date, it may be time to take profits, as pressure on oil prices is mounting and will weigh negatively on Russian equities.

Russian equities have in fact done very well so far this year, in particular when compared with the MSCI World index, which is registering a tiny 2.3% gain. While the developed world is split between small gains and small losses, some emerging markets, like Russia and Brazil, managed to recover at a very fast pace. With commodity prices recovering, in particular since mid-January, investors anticipated the economic gains and pushed equities higher in those countries. But, at a time when commodities are losing some of their previous momentum, investors may revert to real indicators and re-evaluate their holdings. While commodity prices are now higher than at the beginning of the year, economic data in Russia is still ugly, with five straight quarter of negative GDP growth. The question to ask at this point is: Is the 21% profit from the broad equity market reflecting economic prospects? I believe it is not...

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 6,724.43, an increase of 3.37 points.
  • The FTSE 250 rose 30.55 points to finish at 17,282.88.
  • The FTSE All Share climbed 2.70 points to finish at 3,653.83.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share finished at 756.16, up by 1.97 points.

Financial giant Barclays (BARC) saw its shares climb 5.49% to 154.55p despite its profits before tax dropping 21% to £2.06 billion during the first half of the year following the sale of some non-core activities. The remaining non-core businesses lost £1.9 billion over the period. Full-year guidance remains unchanged as the company looks to continue cutting costs during the next six months and performance in the core areas of the firm is expected to pick up.    

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London-focused property group Foxtons (FOXT) saw its pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June plunge by 41.9% to 10.5 million as trading in the capital slowed during the lead up to the EU referendum. Management warned that, following the vote, they do not expect sales levels to fully recover until the beginning of next year. Revenues for the half year fell to £68.8 million despite a very strong first quarter that benefited from a rush of deals ahead of a change in stamp duty. The shares dropped by 14p to 110p.

FTSE 250 pharmaceutical outfit Indivior (INDV) has reported that net revenues for the six months ended 30th June rose to $531 million (£265.2 million) as it increased its market share in the US. However, operating profits also dropped to $198 million (£149.6 million) as a result of planned higher expenditures. Full-year sales forecasts have been increased to $1.03 billion (£0.78 billion), assuming that current conditions remain in place. The shares climbed 9.8% to 296.10p.

Monday's news today

Ultra Electronics (ULE) and Intertek (ITRK) will release interim results.

Quote of the day

"We succeed in enterprises which demand the positive qualities we possess, but we excel in those which can also make use of our defects."
- Alexis de Tocqueville

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