onsdag den 3. august 2016

Why I'm Buying Japan Against the Crowd

 
Why I'm Buying Japan Against the Crowd

By Filipe R. Costa

So here we are again at a junction where policymakers have only two choices: one leads to a merry-go-round that ends and starts at the exact same point; the other leads to a dead-end, forcing a return to the departure point. This has been the choice faced by policymakers over the last few years and it will take some time until they realise the only option they have is to retreat and find an alternate path. The Japanese government and the BOJ are moving in circles; the Yen and the Nikkei can only move in the same circular fashion. Policy action from the government and the central bank appears to be losing impetus, leading to a stronger yen and a weaker Nikkei. However, Prime Minister Abe's bold bet to reflate the Japanese economy seems credible and I believe new firepower may be added during the month of September.

Monetary and fiscal policy are currently a hot potato game. Now, it is Mr Kuroda's turn, an opportunity he uses to cut interest rates and increase asset purchases, and of course help the yen to retreat against the dollar to boost the country's exports. But then comes Ms Yellen's turn, which she uses to neutralise others' action by keeping rates flat for longer than expected. The move benefits corporate America, as foreign earnings converted into dollars become more valuable. Then comes Mr Draghi, who despite being caught between a rock and a hard place tries to implement something similar to other central banks. The long-appreciating Euro is then pushed back to earth. This game – let's call it "Currency Wars" – is also played by Mr Carney (it is his turn today) and many others around the world...

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 6,634.40, a decrease of 11.00 points.
  • The FTSE 250 fell 65.88 points to finish at 16,997.13.
  • The FTSE All Share dropped 24.57 points to finish at 3,610.93.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share finished at 757.59, down by 0.44 points.

Temporary power generation outfit Aggreko (AGK) has continued to struggle in a number of its key markets as low oil prices restricted demand during the six months ended 30th June. Revenues contracted by 12% to £685 million and pre-tax profits plunged 31% to £61 million. Management said that the current order intake was good and that many of its activities are weighted towards the second half of the year, but remained cautious due to conditions in North America. The shares fell 13% to 1,071p.

Download our July issue today! Click HERE to read.

Financial services provider Standard Chartered (STAN) saw profits before tax of $893 million for the six months ended 30th June (£668.3 million), 42% of what it earned in the same period of 2015 but a significant improvement over the $3.6 billion (£2.7 billion) loss booked in the prior six months. The company said it was pleased with its return to underlying profitability, but remains concerned about the broad economic slowdown that has been seen in 2016 so far. The shares grew by 24.70p to close at 614.30p.

High street and catalogue clothing retailer Next (NXT) expects the remainder of the year to be volatile due to fluctuations in the value of sterling and large variations in trading from week to week. Full-year sales forecasts have been narrowed but remain subdued, though a strong fourth quarter could help mitigate current weaknesses and the downside on profits appears to be more limited. The shares rose by 210p to 5,340p.

Tomorrow's news today

Ladbrokes (LAD) and Mondi (MNDI) will release interim results.

Quote of the day

"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people don't recognize them."
- Ann Landers

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Rather infuriatingly for bears of the banking sector, it would appear that good news is great news (in share price terms) and bad news is good news. So being short of the key protagonists is a difficult affair... Click Here To Read The Full Story

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From my perspective, cars are money losing machines, magnets to a whole array of legal infringements, and a great source of pollution and ill health to boot. Yet the car culture rolls on, and people appear blind to the costs. This is great for the likes of motor insurer Admiral Group… Click Here To Read The Full Story

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The extension of Entrepreneurs' Relief and introduction of Investors' Relief announced in the Budget are clearly designed to attract long-term capital investment into companies, particularly small companies with ambitions for high, rapid growth… Click Here To Read The Full Story

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