A vertebra in the spinal column of the world economy is causing pain. As I write the price of Brent Crude is at US$59.99. According to the Knoema website, the break-even oil price ranges from US$149.90 in Venezuela to US$60.50 in Qatar. So, on that basis, almost no one is making money in oil right now. Should we write off the oil majors or do they have a strategy we need to know about? It seems that they do have a kind of plan. The Peak Oil hypothesis has been junked The world's big oil companies are preparing for a day when their major product will not be oil. Instead, they are planning to become energy providers. I have been reading Energy Outlook 2017 published by the oil industry economists at BP (LON:BP). If this reflects current thinking in the industry then it appears that the Peak Oil hypothesis has been junked. This was the idea first developed back in the 1970s by the American geophysicist and oil economist Marion King Hubbert. It states that there will be a point of peak oil production further to which production will steeply decline as established reserves run dry. During the course of this decline, as reserves are depleted – so Hubbert thought – the price of oil would soar to stratospheric levels with massively negative economic consequences. |
Ingen kommentarer:
Send en kommentar