While acknowledging the 'Trump pump' to the oil industry, I have always been sceptical about the long-term prospects for the industry because I believe prices are capped at a much lower level than they were ten years ago. Any excessive enthusiasm is doomed to revert to an even more extreme pessimism in ever shorter periods, as the OPEC cartel's past excesses have led to the rise of a whole new hydraulic fracking industry that is always waiting in the sidelines for opportunities to pump oil into the market.
Not sharing my lack of enthusiasm, hedge funds and the "smart money" in general have poured incredible sums of money into oil lately, so high is their optimism. Currently, the ratio of long to short bets on oil is at a record 9 to 1, which is an indicator of how sentiment is tilted towards the bullish side. But for those who follow the precepts of value investing, this scenario alone is enough to make the alarm bells ring; when there is excess optimism, future returns tend to be poor. Compounding the behavioural argument is a fundamental reasoning showing the oil market may be softer than it seems.
by Zak Mir | Trading | 1 mins. to read Seldom do I follow stocks which have been recently featured in the financial press, largely because I feel that the financial press is not what it used to be.
by Victor Hill | Economics | 11 mins. to read The Illuminati are plotting… One of the themes I have returned to again and again over the last eighteen months has been how the priestly caste of the world's central bankers.
by Filipe R Costa | Economics | 6 mins. to read While an investor tries to maximise the expected returns of his portfolio, he always faces a formidable enemy – risk. In theory, if leverage has no limits, any level of expected return can be achieved.
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