onsdag den 26. juli 2017

Fed meeting... Small changes but keeping "hawkish tilt" despite failure on inflation

Small changes to text:

 

-      Acknowledge the inflation undershoot

-      Keep indicating balance sheet run-off but changing timing from this year to relatively soon

 

Fixed income market not concerned about run-off date (likely announcement September – for December) – as seen here 2-30 Y small down in yield….

 

 

 

 

Conclusion:

 

FED wants to believe in Phillips curve- (correlation btw employment and inflation) they are soon alone on this subject, never the less the hawkish tone is probably also a poor attempt to reign in stock market expecations.

 

Bias:

 

Long gold – biggest overweight

Still OW Fixed Income

Short Dollar

 

 

 

Chart supports:

 

 

Data remain weak – maybe even so weak some improvement could happen……

 

Inflation – slightly "under-shoot"? I don't know which planet Fed is from……

 

 

This is my FAVORITE long position into autumn – GOLD is retaking 100 SMA tonight and long Gold spot, and gold mining stocks my one OVERWEIGHT for balance of 2017… low-flation, recession risk, weak dollar, dovish- tilt from ECB soon….

 

 

Our longest held view: The weaker US dollar – it's hitting support levels, long-term trend remains towards 90-88 in Dollar Index and EURUSD should be toppish 1.17/1.1750…… (like USDJPY above 114.00)

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