Macro chart prelude to Steen's Chronicle

I am doing extensive Steen's Chronicle but wanted to share some great charts with you…

 

Full report Thursday or Friday….but conclusion same:

 

1.    The US Dollar has peaked and started multi-year cycle lower as both the US and world growth can't work without a weaker dollar (Stronger dollar kills growth, through debt service, emerging markets and commodities)

2.    Everything is deflationary: Demographics, technology, energy and the debt mountain

3.    The Credit Impulse peaked in late 2016, early 2017 making global growth vulnerable in Q4-2016 into Q1-2017

4.    US interest rates heading to zero percent in 10Y government yield by end of 2018, early 2019

5.    New call: Energy prices to fall by 50% next ten years

 

The Inverse drain the swamp Trump trade…?

 

 

 

Thriple Top in Dollar? (Source. Soc Gen)

 

 

Credit Impulse at new low!!!

 

 

 

 

This chart is dedicated to the young "traders" on Saxo Bank trading floor who when talking pretends market never goes down!

 

 

 

 

Trump is good for short dollar positions

 

 

 

 

FED is tightening but …FINANCIAL CONDITION has been falling till now….

 

 

 

 

My favorite "market timer" – risk is BIG MOVE down in interest rates on this monthly – which co-indicides with our CREDIT IMPULSE turning v. negative

 

 

 

ECB will not hike before 2019……..

 

 

 

 

           

Keep an eye on BASIS Swaps… This is EUR & JPY basis swap index =100 – Jan. 2017……

 

 

 

Med venlig hilsen  |  Best regards
Steen Jakobsen  |  Chief Investment Officer

 

Saxo Bank A/S  |  Philip Heymans Allé 15  |  DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00  |  Direct: +45 39 77 62 23  |  Mobile: +45 51 54 50 00

 

Research: http://www.tradingfloor.com/traders/steen-jakobsen

Please visit our website at www.saxobank.com

 

 

 

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