Far from memory is the time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC were in control of global oil prices, as are oil prices above $100. A nascent fracking industry in the US, deteriorating social conditions in some oil producing countries and a desire in Saudi Arabia to retain market acted like an explosive mix that changed the fundamentals of the market. If OPEC still has the ability to put a floor on prices, the US fracking industry has the ability to put a ceiling on them. Every time prices go down significantly, OPEC cuts production. But, at the other extreme, every time oil prices start rising, the fracking industry starts adding output and thus limits upside price potential. With the fracking industry having been able to decrease breakeven prices, the upside limit on oil prices will be ever lower. For this reason, I'm not bullish long term on oil. The fundamentals behind the supply side are concerning and demand has also been struggling to grow. Part of that demand may be permanently lost to alternative energies. But in the short term, things may be a little different. | |
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