tirsdag den 25. oktober 2016

The signs of a Great Unravelling are appearing

 
The signs of a Great Unravelling are appearing

By Jim Mellon

Another month of the phoney war in markets; range bound almost everywhere, except in Japan – which is performing well – and ahead of every other major market. (So it should: it's the cheapest and best bet!).

Don't think for one moment that this quiet period and low volatility will last – I've just been on a trip through the Somme and to the Normandy landing beaches; and our journey was  a sobering reminder that phony wars have a habit of turning into something much worse.

There is something called the Dunning Kruger effect; incompetent people rarely realise that they are thus handicapped. And the best demonstration of this is the current crop of central bankers. Mostly incompetent to the core- and without realising it. While the likes of Kamikaze Kuroda and Mark Carnage are congratulating themselves on "saving the world", – Gordon Brown style – the signs of a Great Unravelling are appearing.

Bond yields are rising (and this could have been predicted by a monkey), the effects of negative interest rates are now generally believed to be pernicious by all except their perpetrators. And banks in many parts of the world are beginning to feel the strain – especially in Europe and in China. Corporate cannibalism, otherwise known as share buy backs, are having a progressively lessened effect on earnings, and indeed, on share prices. This is particularly so in the US, where despite US 175 bn of share buy backs a quarter, earnings are falling, and valuations remain especially stretched...

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 7,017.64, an increase of 31.24 points.
  • The FTSE 250 fell 58.67 points to finish at 17,801.85.
  • The FTSE All Share climbed 8.19 points to finish at 3,802.06.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share ended the day at 825.56.

Shares in FTSE 100 hospitality operator Whitbread (WTB) dropped by 3.75% to 3,699p despite underlying pre-tax profits for the six months ended 1st September climbing by 5.4% to £307 million. Total revenues for the period were up by 8.1% at £1,555.9 million with strong performances by both the Costa and Premier Inn brands. Management say that they are on target to hit full year targets despite uncertain macroeconomic conditions.  

Check out our brand-new October issue! Click HERE to read.

Consumer travel outfit National Express (NEX) saw operating profits climb 9% in constant currency terms over the third quarter of its financial year as its overseas businesses grew strongly. Reported results expanded even more quickly as these foreign earnings were further boosted by shifts in exchange rates in recent months. National Express shares climbed by 10.70p to 367p.

Shares in AIM-listed palm oil outfit MP Evans (MPE) soared 43.11% to 610p after the company received an unsolicited offer of 640p per share. Management said that they view this bid as wholly inadequate, but has yet to take a formal position. In the meantime, they urged shareholders to take no action.

Tomorrow's news today

Antofagasta (ANTO) will publish third quarter results.

Quote of the day

"Nine-tenths of wisdom is being wise in time."
- Theodore Roosevelt

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