tirsdag den 11. oktober 2016

Why inflation is set to make a comeback

 
Why inflation is set to make a comeback

By Bill Blain

It's been a long, hot September, and global activity remains muted. The Fed has put tightening on Ice with the market now anticipating modest interest rate rises through next year, while the Bank of Japan is chucking the kitchen sink of extreme monetary policy at the problem of deflation. While markets struggled with a host of conflicting signals and global events, we were sitting sweltering in the office wondering about where the UK economy goes next following the Brexit vote.

One of the KEY issues we are pondering is the extraordinary volatility of UK inflation linked Government bonds – the so-called Linker Gilts market. It's a key indicator of future inflation expectations.

Although there is a "feel good" factor after the world didn't immediately end on the Brexit vote, and a discernible feeling that recovery might be around the corner, the latest numbers from the Bank of England show inflation remains stubbornly flat at 0.6%, far short of the Bank of England's 2% inflation target. The last data was well shy of the modest 0.7% expectations economists had for the last set of inflation numbers

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The Master Investor Market Report

  • The FTSE 100 closed the day at 7,070.88, a decrease of 26.62 points.
  • The FTSE 250 rose 94.30 points to finish at 18,073.20.
  • The FTSE All Share dropped 8.69 points to finish at 3,839.02.
  • The FTSE AIM All Share ended the day at 826.98, up by 1.04 points.

Fashion house Ted Baker (TED) reported that revenues for the 28 weeks ended 13th August climbed by 14.4% to £259.5 million driven by strong demand in North American and Asian markets as well as a significant improvement in online performance. Profits before taxation climbed 20.5% to £21.5 million and management said they were confident that this growth would continue. The shares rose by 115p to 2,530p.

Check out our brand-new October issue! Click HERE to read.

Shares in polymer specialist Victrex (VCT) rose 8.08% to 1,753p after the company said that its performance had improved during the second half of the year and that results for the 12 months ended 30th September would be in line with expectations. Overall group revenues dropped by 4% to £252 million due to a sharp decline in consumer electronics sales.

Retailer Brown (N.) (BWNG) saw its shares shoot 16.54% higher to 205p as its adjusted pre-tax profits for the first half of the financial year beat consensus forecasts. Group revenues for the six months ended 27th August crept up by 1% to £429.4 million. Management said that the period had been challenging for the entire sector, but they were confident in hitting full-year expectations.

Tomorrow's news today

Hays (HAS) will publish interim results.

Quote of the day

"To do a common thing uncommonly well brings success."
- Henry J. Heinz

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