onsdag den 23. november 2016

Mellon on the Markets: The BONDfire of the Vanities

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DAILY BULLETIN
Wednesday 23 November 2016
The BONDfire of the Vanities
by Jim Mellon | Economics | 8 mins. to read
Mellon Bonds
Last week I was in New York, and by sheer chance I ended up right next to Trump's golden palace (and of course the many thousands of indignant demonstrators objecting to his position as President-elect). I'd come across on the mighty Queen Mary II, as I find it easier to research  new books on the high seas, since phones and other shiny distractions don't work on board.

As everyone knows by now, some notable Brexiteers had a meeting with Trump, ahead of all the usual politicos, including the saintly Mrs May. The day after their meeting, my friends and I met up with the whole Brexit gang for a long lunch. I was presented with a copy of Bad Boys of Brexit by Arron Banks, which is a terrific read – get hold of a copy if you can!

And I gained some insights, most of which I can't disclose. I can say that, in my opinion, the new President will dial back the harsh rhetoric of the election campaign – in fact he is already beginning to do so – and many of his economic policies will be positive.

Already, it is clear that there will be an immediate and substantial cut in corporate taxes (probably to 12.5%) and an amnesty on the repatriation of what is believed to be $2 trillion of corporate cash held abroad. That will probably attract a one-off charge of 10%, which means $200 billion for US Treasury coffers. That's no chump change, and I expect almost all of the monies to be repatriated.

 
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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"There is no influence like the influence of habit."
                                                 Gilbert Parker
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Is your portfolio ready for a 2008-style financial crisis?
  • Bank valuations already at lowest point since 2008 - a precursor to another blow-up.
  • A real risk of Italy leaving the Euro, French insolvency, and Germany writing off huge loans to Southern Europe. 
  • Disruptive political events, like Brexit or the US election, threaten to throw markets off course.
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