DAILY BULLETIN
Thursday 10 November 2016 | | | | Dear Gutenberg,
It has been an interesting few months on the currency markets and the prospect of a Trump presidency is having its own effect on the markets. Our resident expert Filipe looks at the prospects of the pound below and discusses why he believes that the doomsayers and economists are going too far in their apocalyptic speculation. | | | Economists and analysts have always been a gloomy bunch. Every time the economy improves, they are slow to show support; and every time things go wrong, they make them appear even worse by predicting severe crises and financial crashes. Investors, as a group, are even worse, as they move together in hysterical 'herds' which amplify economists' and analysts' predictions. But I am not in a position to blame either, mainly for two reasons.
First of all, the human mind suffers from quite a few cognitive biases, which include the availability heuristic and the availability cascade. In short, we continually overestimate the likelihood of something happening when it is closer to hand and we quickly turn such an ill-formed belief into collective wisdom, which often ends in extreme market movements and, sometimes, crashes. Second, you know the saying "people who live in glass houses should not throw stones"? Well, I'm a part-time economist, part-time investor so… you get the picture…
| | | LATEST STORIES FROM OUR BLOG | | | by Zak Mir | Trading |  1 mins. to read
Rather like the stock market analogy of profits warnings coming in threes, there is the situation where one capitulates on a stock or market just before the great turnaround arrives.
| by Evil Knievel | Evil Diaries | 1 mins. to read
Every time the doorbell goes I fear that it is a courier-sped P45 from the chairman. For I it was who urged him to put £100,000 (I do not know whether he took this advice – after all, he may be wise) on Clinton at around 4/9.
| | by Robert Stephens | Equities | 5 mins. to read
In recent years, we have become used to a low level of inflation. However, since the EU referendum the economic landscape has changed and a higher level of inflation is likely in future years.
| | by Zak Mir | Trading | 1 mins. to read
We have seen an interesting divergence between the initial strength of gold in the wake of the Trump victory, and the mark-up maintained by many of the leading gold proxies like Patagonia Gold (LON:PGD).
| | by Samuel Rae | Trading | 4 mins. to read
Right now, there is very little anyone is (and can be) certain about in the markets. We've got a perfect storm of global uncertainty about to come to a climax, and holders of pretty much every available asset, financial or otherwise, are wondering if their allocation is the right one.
| | |
"Hope is such a bait, it covers any hook."
Oliver Goldsmith
| | | | TIPTV MASTER INVESTOR SHOW | | |
Is your portfolio ready for a 2008-style financial crisis? - Bank valuations already at lowest point since 2008 - a precursor to another blow-up.
- A real risk of Italy leaving the Euro, French insolvency, and Germany writing off huge loans to Southern Europe.
- Disruptive political events, like Brexit or the US election, threaten to throw markets off course.
- Will China's debt bubble finally burst, just when no-one expected it?
| | | |
Ingen kommentarer:
Send en kommentar