DAILY BULLETIN
Monday 28 November 2016 | | | While the global euphoria ignited by Donald Trump persists, there are parts of the world where sentiment is a little weaker. Trump will certainly help central banks to adjust policy and boost the domestic economy, but it will bring a lot of trouble to emerging markets. When I say trouble, I'm not thinking about Trump's extreme convictions regarding globalisation and protectionism; I'm just referring to the natural consequences stemming from a fiscal boost and faster monetary policy stabilisation in the U.S. The first collateral damage was felt in Mexico. Turkey will be next…
A few months ago, in my article Turkexit is now a reality, I wrote the following:
"The CBT has been following an easing policy of cutting rates while inflation is above the 5% target. I really doubt the CBT will be able to maintain its trend of cutting rates without accelerating the depreciation of the lira. I believe that the current low yields observed elsewhere are helping Turkey to retain some of its attractions. But as soon as ratings agencies start cutting Turkey's rating, the EU-Turkey relationship deteriorates, and/or there is any sign the US may raise rates, the lira will stumble. Because of these considerations, I believe that there is a good fundamental reason to keep a long position in USD/TRY through spread betting to avoid the current sterling risk at a time when sterling is experiencing significant volatility."
At the time, the lira was trading at 3.0289 per dollar.
| | | LATEST STORIES FROM OUR BLOG | | | by Zak Mir | Trading |  1 mins. to read
Although there is still over a month to go to get over the finishing line, looking at some of the best performing stocks of the year to date reveals a surprising name or two.
| by David Jones | Trading | 5 mins. to read
Too many people seem to have a blind faith approach when investing, and if a share continues to slide they hang on in the hope that one day it will rise.
| | by Robert Stephens | Equities | 5 mins. to read
In the days following the EU referendum, UK commercial property was the last thing investors wanted to hold. Various funds were suspended, commercial property stocks recorded vast share price falls and it seemed as though the sector was in for a rough ride.
| | by Zak Mir | Trading | 1 mins. to read
There is nothing as frustrating, but ultimately rewarding, as calling the end of an extended bear run in a small cap stock. Providence Resources (LON:PVR) is the situation where we may finally see a decent rally.
| | by Ruzbeh Bacha | Economics | 5 mins. to read
In keeping with the Indian Government's reform agenda, on 8 November Prime Minister Modi announced the immediate withdrawal of Rs. 500 & Rs. 1000 notes, in a move to reduce black money in the system, curb funding of illegal activities and address the problem of counterfeit notes.
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"Study the past, if you would divine the future."
Confucius
| | | | MASTER INVESTOR VIDEO EXCLUSIVE | | |
Is your portfolio ready for a 2008-style financial crisis? - Bank valuations already at lowest point since 2008 - a precursor to another blow-up.
- A real risk of Italy leaving the Euro, French insolvency, and Germany writing off huge loans to Southern Europe.
- Disruptive political events, like Brexit or the US election, threaten to throw markets off course.
- Will China's debt bubble finally burst, just when no-one expected it?
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